China Uses Tariff War as a Smokescreen to Make Its Move in the Civil Airline Market

An important red flag of concern has been attached to Comac by the U.S. Department of Defense, which now officially lists it as a Chinese military company. With this listing, Comac should be considered a “civil-military fusion” player that is actively asserting the Chinese communist intent and agenda.

It is interesting that in the South China Morning Post on March 25, in advance of the tariff focus by the Trump administration, it was reported that Comac “plans a further 50 [percent] boost to production capacity for the C919 – the country’s first home-grown narrowbody jet – this year as it ramps up the challenge to the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in the domestic market, according to information shared with suppliers at a conference in Xian this week.“ The article went on to say that Comac ”will increase production capacity to 75 planes – up from the 50 it announced in January – according to a WeChat account focused on the company’s supply chain.”

Even in advance of the current tariff clashes, China was appearing to make its breakout move.

Comac Aircraft Certification by US–European Authorities a Bridge Too Far

A significant issue for Comac is the Western certification of their aircraft. The certification process requires transparency and visibility in many areas that Comac would likely be averse to cooperating with. The current certification progress of the C919 and other Comac aircraft by the U.S. Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) and its European equivalent, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), is lagging. Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of Air Lease, was dismissive of the C919.

There is a concerning intersection of Comac with Boeing. In Italy, the Alenia facility outside Naples participates in the production of the Boeing 787, producing about a “14% share of (the) 787’s airframe,” according to the firm’s website. What is also curious about the Alenia facility is the relation of both Russian and Chinese interests, apparently in the same facility with Boeing.

On Oct. 26, 2018, China, through Comac, signed with Leonardo (parent of Alenia) to develop the CR929, essentially the Chinese equivalent to the Boeing 737. Although the Leonardo listing mentions Comac, Comac has also created a joint venture with United Aircraft Corp. of the Russian Federation and the CR929 is really the China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corp. Co. (CRAIC) CR929. With current events, this intertwined relationship of Boeing, Alenia, Comac, and CRAIC is untenable.

Is There Enough BRICS Market Share to Make the Chinese Airliners Viable?

The certification process is likely too difficult for Comac to achieve in the Western-aligned nations. The question is, is there enough market share in the Chinese, Russian, North Korean, Iranian, Venezuelan, and South African airline companies to make the Comac challenge to Boeing and Airbus a reality? Possibly.

This Airbus/Boeing success is potentially an incentive for China-aligned nations to obtain non-Western certified Comac aircraft. This may mean that their aircraft can only fly to and from China-aligned nations, but that may be good enough for those countries that choose to side with China.

All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.