Last year will likely register the lowest national homicide rate in 125 years, according to a newly released analysis.
The Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, estimated based on currently available data from U.S. cities that the rate of homicides dropped 21 percent from 2024 to 2025, during President Donald Trump’s first year in office of his second term.
“When nationwide data for jurisdictions of all sizes is reported by the FBI later this year, there is a strong possibility that homicides in 2025 will drop to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents. That would be the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900, and would mark the largest single-year percentage drop in the homicide rate on record,” the organization said.
The New York Times reported, “The analysis of data from 40 cities, by the Council on Criminal Justice… found across-the-board decreases in crime last year compared to 2019: 25 percent fewer homicides, 13 percent fewer shootings and 29 percent fewer carjackings.”
“The Federal Bureau of Investigation has not yet released nationwide crime data for all of 2025, but statistics published by cities and collected by independent researchers are already telling the latest chapter of a remarkable story. In just half a decade, cities have gone from upswings in murder and mayhem the likes of which some had not seen in 25 years to declines themselves worthy of headlines,” The New York Times added.
“The spikes began in 2020 with the shock of the global pandemic and, just a few months later, sweeping protests over police killings, both of which strained the capacity of law enforcement.”
The Council on Criminal Justice pointed out that crime overall had begun dropping in 2024 before Trump took office, though not at the same rate.
The White House took a victory lap, touting it as one of Trump’s campaign pledges being fulfilled: “Make America Safe Again.”
Blessed are the peacemakers, both at home and abroad. pic.twitter.com/1PSbeb7yd1
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 22, 2026
“This monumental turnaround is a direct result of President Trump’s unwavering commitment to Make America Safe Again. In addition to the historic drop in murders last year, the nation experienced steep declines in rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, shooting deaths (fewest since 2015), on-duty law enforcement officer deaths (80-year low), traffic fatalities, and overdose deaths,” the White House said.
“President Trump is reversing the chaos and carnage unleashed by Radical Left Democrats who turned our streets into war zones by coddling criminals and opening our borders. Since taking office, President Trump has deployed a whole-of-government offensive in Democrat-run cities, driving down crime, ridding the streets of savage criminal illegal aliens, backing law enforcement, and bringing back order where incompetent Democrat politicians surrendered to anarchy and despair,” Trump’s team added.
ICYMI: Murder Rate Plunges to 125-Year Low as President Trump Restores Law and Orderhttps://t.co/9FVjG6B6fy
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) January 22, 2026
The New York Times also highlighted, “Of the 35 cities whose homicide rates were in the analysis, all but eight had a lower murder rate in 2025 than before the pandemic. Those whose murder rates were still the most elevated included Milwaukee, at 42 percent higher; Austin, at 36 percent higher; and Minneapolis, at 30 percent higher.”
Minneapolis has been a recent focus for the Department of Homeland Security’s push to remove criminal illegal aliens, despite hostile resistance from Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey.
A Gallup survey conducted in October found that Americans are feeling safer.
Less than half of respondents, 49 percent, said crime was an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the United States, down from 63 percent last year. The level of concern is currently at its lowest mark since at least 2018, during Trump’s first term, Gallup said.
This article appeared originally on The Western Journal.
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