Photo courtesy of the People’s Liberation Army.
The Trump administration has released two documents, the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy, both of which address the major threats to the United States.
The strategy documents suggest the focus will be on countering China in the Western Hemisphere, near the U.S. homeland, first, and then countering China in the Indo-Pacific.
The “China” section of the 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) describes the People’s Republic of China as the second most powerful country in the world, behind the United States.
That characterization is accurate only when power is measured in aggregate terms rather than military capability alone. In strictly military rankings, China does not rank second.
By most credible assessments, including nuclear capability, force projection, and strategic depth, China ranks behind both the United States and Russia, placing it third in overall military power.
The claim that China is the world’s second most powerful country reflects a broader evaluation that combines military strength with economic scale, industrial capacity, technological development, diplomatic reach, and political influence.
Across those metrics, the United States remains the most powerful country economically, militarily, and politically, particularly in its ability to influence the foreign policies of other nations.
China’s economy is slowing as the country faces a demographic crisis.
The population is aging, and young people make up a shrinking share of society. In a country where most families have only one child, parents are often hesitant to allow that child to join the military.
In an effort to surpass the United States, Beijing has steadily increased defense spending, but at the expense of social programs for an aging population that will require greater care.
At the same time, the percentage of the population paying taxes is declining as workers retire and are not replaced by new births.
The NDS notes, however, that China could continue increasing defense spending if it chose to do so. History has shown that state priorities often supersede care for the population.
China has been developing high-priced, advanced-technology weapons focused largely on controlling the Western Pacific, as well as systems capable of reaching targets much farther away.
The Indo-Pacific is expected to account for more than half of the global economy in the near future.
This means China’s buildup threatens U.S. interests, as well as the security, freedom, and prosperity of the American people.
The PRC is positioning itself to interfere with U.S. commerce and shipping, potentially restricting America’s access to global markets.
This is why the NDS, the NSS, and the Department of War urge the United States to maintain a favorable balance of power against China, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
This is crucial not only to America’s interests but also to protect regional allies whose militaries are too small to challenge China directly.
Supporting those allies increases U.S. military power by providing bases where the United States can resupply or launch patrols. It also serves as a force multiplier when allied militaries are combined with U.S. forces.
The U.S. shift in focus toward the homeland and nearshore regions still prioritizes countering China. Defense of the U.S. homeland and America’s backyard is less about troop placement and more about geoeconomic security.
By prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, the United States aims to secure supply chains by moving critical manufacturing from Asia to North and South America, reducing vulnerability.
It also seeks to exclude Chinese economic and technological influence from Latin America and the Caribbean.
By encouraging Europe and South Korea to take greater responsibility for their own defense, the United States frees resources to secure the rear in the Americas while advancing the front in the Indo-Pacific.
At the same time, the strategy supports expanded military-to-military communication with China’s People’s Liberation Army to promote strategic stability, deconfliction, and de-escalation.
Whereas previous approaches limited such engagement largely to crisis management or symbolic confidence-building measures, the 2026 NDS frames sustained military dialogue as a tool for preventing miscalculation while negotiating from a position of strength.
The overarching aim is to deter aggression, preserve freedom of action in the Indo-Pacific, and maintain peace through strength, giving President Trump leverage to secure favorable outcomes for the United States while safeguarding regional security, economic access, and long-term prosperity.
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