Democrats are targeting a key House pickup in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, but the outcome could increase the chances of a Republican winning the presidency in 2028.
RINO Congressman Don Bacon is not seeking reelection in November, creating an open race and a major opportunity for Democrats to pick up a tightly contested House seat.
The Democratic frontrunner, state Sen. John Cavanaugh, would be required to give up his seat in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature if elected to Congress.
His replacement would be appointed by the state’s Republican governor, Jim Pillen.
Republicans are currently one seat short of a filibuster-proof supermajority in the legislature.
Should they gain that additional seat, they would have the votes needed to advance legislation without Democratic support.
That could include changes to Nebraska’s congressional maps, potentially making the 2nd District more favorable to Republicans, as well as efforts to eliminate the state’s split Electoral College system.
Nebraska is one of two states that allocates electoral votes by congressional district.
The 2nd District has recently provided Democrats with a single electoral vote, including in the 2024 presidential election, when Kamala Harris carried the district.
In a closely contested national election, that single electoral vote could prove significant.
Without the split system, Nebraska would award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner.
Democrats believe they can offset any loss by winning additional legislative seats in upcoming elections.
“We’re prepared that we might lose [Cavanaugh’s] seat. So that means we have to pick up a few more this cycle,” Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb told Politico.
In recent years, Democrats have successfully blocked efforts to redraw district boundaries and change how the state allocates its electoral votes.
If Republicans secure a supermajority, those constraints would be removed, allowing them to revisit those proposals ahead of the 2028 election cycle.
Meanwhile, the retirement of Don Bacon is no great loss to the Republican Party.
Last November, Bacon admitted he also resigned from Congress in protest of President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.
He denounced the proposal as the “Witkoff Ukrainian surrender plan,” referring to Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who helped craft it.
However, he said that he intended to honor his “commitment to our constituents to fulfill my term.”
BREAKING: DON BACON, Nebraska Republican, will not seek releection.
JOE BIDEN and KAMALA HARRIS both won the Omaha based seat.
This will become a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2026.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) June 27, 2025
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