Guest post by Baba Olu
Nigeria by Football Numbers – Making Sense of the Genocide Claims and Counterclaims
US President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have raised the possibility of military action in Nigeria due to reports of genocide and attacks on Christian communities.
Official reports and traditional news sources, however, give very little insight into the causes and motivations for these attacks and why they have continued for so long.
This compact and factual account cuts to the chase and shows how the history, the formation, and the structure of Nigeria are at the root of these killings and shows how the situation can be resolved without billions of dollars and innocent bloodshed by quickly addressing the root causes and not just the symptoms.
Nigeria by Football Numbers
If a foreigner who has never played football or doesn’t understand the game were to ask how many points you get for each score, you would say, “Well, it depends.” You could get 3, 6, 7, or 8 points. Depending on whether the score is a field goal, a touchdown, a touchdown with an extra point, or a touchdown with a 2-point conversion.
These football scores – 3, 6, 7, and 8 – can be used to get a grasp of the history and structure of Nigeria, and how to resolve its legal, fiscal, and security complexities and challenges, including the targeted and ethnic cleansing of some Indigenous and Christian communities. We’ll get to this in a moment, but let’s start with our football numbers.
3 – Like a field goal, it’s not the ideal score you want at the end of a drive, but it gets you on the board.
Having the basic understanding of the three major ethnic nations that are partially or wholly within Nigeria, the Hausa, Igbo, and ‘Yoruba’ gives a rough but far from ideal understanding of the Nigerian state. Some Nigerians have even self-identified with the term “Wazobia”, which is a combination of the translation of the word “come” in the language of the three major ethnic countries or nationalities.
Nigeria was structured into three regions by 1960, the time England decided it was done plundering the territory it allocated to itself during the criminal gathering where Africa was ‘scrambled’ in 1884, otherwise known as the Berlin Conference.
The Igbo or Ndigbo, the largest ethnic nation that is wholly within the Nigerian state, was the largest in the eastern region.
The Kaaro Jire or Afenifere (‘Yoruba’ as labelled by the British and others) were the largest nation in the western region. About 80% of their country lies within Nigeria, with the remaining 20% spreading into the French-owned Republics of Benin and Togo.
Hausa country was the largest in the northern region.
A bit more detail on Hausa country provides relevant context on Nigeria and its challenges.
England’s ‘claim’ to Nigeria was only consolidated in 1904 after it subdued another group of foreign invaders, a clan of extremist jihadists who had seized control of the religious and traditional institutions of Nigeria’s largest country, Hausaland.
Hausa Country was itself partitioned into two by the plundering rendezvous in Berlin. The northern half of Hausa Country became the French owned nation of Niger, and the southern part of Hausa Country fell into British colonial rule and became largely synonymous with Nigeria’s northern region.
The English found it convenient to return the fleeing Fulbe Jihadists clans to the rule of Hausa Country, and leveraged on the existing structure to gain a foothold over the rest of what became Nigeria. Under the foreign Fulbe and British colonial rule, the previously wealthy Hausa Country lost its economic status and know-how and has remained one of Africa’s and the World’s poorest regions.
6 – In football, this is a touchdown, much better than a field goal, but you still have options of an extra score, and in Nigeria, this number provides a much better and relevant explanation of the structure of the nation.
Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones are roughly made up of the three larger ethnic nations and ‘buffer’ zones separating these three. The larger ethnic nations and their zones are:
The Ndigbo in the South-East,
The Kaaro-Jire or Yoruba in the South-West, and
Hausa Country is in the North-West.
In addition to these three, you also have
The South-South zone is made up of ethnic nationalities, including the Ijaw, Urhobo, Edo and some Ndigbo groups.
The North Central Zone, which includes ethnic nationalities including Birom, Tarok, Idoma and Tiv on the eastern end, and Nupe country, parts of Borgu, Igala and significant parts of Kaaro-Jire country on the western end.
The North East Zone includes the ‘Nigerian’ part of the Kanuri or Kanem-Bornu Country on its northern tip, and the Jukun on its southern tip.
A unique feature of this region is that its eastern border and the adjacent areas in Cameroon have over 500 distinct languages, about 10% of all languages spoken in the world. Many of these languages are spoken by less than 5,000 people.
This outlying case and statistic has often been falsely or ignorantly used to suggest an inexplicable and unworkable complexity that will make it impossible to reform or structure the Nigerian state as a fiscal and legal confederation.
Extremist jihadis have taken advantage of the somewhat dispersed nature of relatively small groups in this zone to execute a systematic cleansing of the indigenous groups and peoples in this zone.
Modibo Adama, a Fuduye associate who now has a state in this region named after him, received the flag to carry the ethnic cleansing of indigenous peoples and was granted the title of Lord of the Southlands by Fuduye.
Screenshot
It should also be noted that a number of military dictators throughout Nigeria’s post-colonial history have sliced and diced the nation into an increasing number of economically unviable states – from 3 to 12 to 19, to 21 and then to the current 36 and a Federal Capital Territory.
These ‘states’ are mostly function as departments of a unitary nation rather than foundational units of a federal republic. As such, the creation of multiple states, which was probably done to suppress and extinguish naturally occurring countries, has failed to quell the desire and agitation for either a deep structural, legal, and fiscal reform of the Nigerian nation or for some, its outright dissolution.
The attempts to do what is needful or commonsensical have however not been cordial, strategic or planned, resulting in a civil war that killed up to three million in 1967, and over 40 different, mostly foreign Fulbe led Jihadist uprisings and revolts.
What is therefore left is a nation-state that is functionally and strategically unable to adequately protect its citizens or significantly improve their welfare or create the conditions for the naturally occurring countries to do the same.
Each set of Nigeria’s post-colonial rulers has however chosen to somehow manage the unworkable poisoned chalice bequeathed to it, failing to take the Nation to the legal and fiscal arrangement of a Confederation at the very least, and hoping that the chaos of an unplanned or sporadic dissolution would only happen after it has passed on the extremely enriching hot potato of Nigerian leadership to some generation in the future.
It is, however, beyond foolhardy to even suggest that the whimsical creation of some war-mongering European plunderers created in Berlin to fit their own short-term ambitions of 1884, must be the permanent status quo of over 200 million people jam-packed into a nation that most do not want to be in, and that cannot protect them or give them the opportunity to thrive.
7 and 8 – The extra points. These are not stand-alone regions in Nigeria’s current 6 zone geopolitical structure, but are extra points, the icing on the cake, in understanding Nigeria’s history, and how it should be structured going forward.
7 – Kanuri or Kanem-Bornu
The Kanuri straddle four countries bordering the Lake Chad basin, including:
The Northeastern corner of Nigeria
The far Northern tip of Cameroon
Parts of central Chad
The South Eastern area of Niger
The Kanuri had been targets of Jihadist and Arab slave raiding and military adventurists over the centuries, including Rabih Al-Zubayr and the foreign Fuduyan Fulbes, who launched a long lasting war on Bornu, once their hold on Hausa country was complete.
While, there has been a long history of violent propagation and jihadi expansionism, mostly by foreign Fulbes in Nigeria (Herdsmen, Bandits, Fuduyan Fulbes, Maitatsine etc), the Kanuris had mostly had to play defense from the attacks of violent propagators, progressively moving their capital southwards over a few centuries from Njimi to Yerwa and the current day Maiduguri in the Northeastern corner of the Nigerian Nation
All of that changed with Boko Haram.
Little else needs to be said about the horrendous nature and disastrous impact of the crimes of this terrorist Jihadist group, with especially notorious incidents like the kidnap of Hundreds of schoolgirls at Chibok, or the murder of scores of schoolboys in Bunin Yadi, gaining it global notoriety.
Beyond the headline-making incidents and crimes, hundreds of villages were sacked, thousands of people were murdered and hundreds of thousands more were displaced by Boko Haram.
Many of these villages and communities were in the same region where Lamido Adama launched His murderous campaigns on innocent communities based on the flag he received from Fuduye.
Given this unique history and current complex realities, it is ideal to consider Kanuri country by itself when looking at North East Nigeria.
The current Nigerian president, Bola Tinubu, got caught up in some controversy with his Muslim-Muslim ticket for his presidential candidacy, but he may have played a masterstroke either fortuitously or by design in selecting Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri, as his vice president.
The foreign Fuduyan Fulbe clans, who control the traditional and religious institutions in Hausa Country, naturally expected to be the direct beneficiary of a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket.
It was definitely not surprising that within two years of the Tinubu presidency, an aggressive opposition came from the ranks of the foreign Fulbe clans, with notable members pulling out of the ruling political party, APC, in which they formed a notable block. Others, posing as ‘Northern’ thought leaders, launched relentless attacks on Tinubu in public media and platforms.
8 – Abuja FCT – Nigeria’s two point conversion.
The English Colonials moved the capital of Nigeria as they found convenient. From Calabar to Lokoja and eventually Lagos.
In 1975, an Akinola Aguda led panel proposed to the Head of state, General Murtala Muhammad, that a new capital should be built from the ground up in the center of the country, carved out from sparsely populated portions of Gwari and Nupe Country. Work was slow over the next decade, and Abuja was nothing but vast expanses of cleared land when I first visited in 1986. Work accelerated from 1991 as the then Head of State, Ibrahim Babangida, rushed to announce the official move of the capital to Abuja following another coup d’état in 1990 that tried to topple the military government from its vulnerable seat of power in Lagos.
Funded by Niger Delta Oil Revenues, Abuja, Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory has grown to become its most planned metropolitan area with about 4 million residents as of 2025. There is some agreement that it has achieved its objectives and has probably worked better than other planned capital cities around the world, including Brasilia in Brazil and Sejong City in South Korea. Egypt’s NAC, though much closer to its current capital, Cairo, hopes to mirror Abuja’s success.
Despite Abuja’s success, it has not utilized the potential it can have as a regional and continental haven and diplomatic powerhouse. Nairobi, in particular, has become a key beneficiary of the relocation of International agencies, to make up for the prior concentration in the global north and in some cases, the visa tightening regime for the workers of these agencies by the host countries. Abidjan and Addis Ababa are also beneficiaries to a lesser extent.
Abuja is dragged back in this regard by Nigeria’s structure and its security challenges. Fixing the structure will quickly address the security challenges facing all parts of Nigeria and enable Nigeria’s FCT to compete favorably and even outperform other options within and outside the continent as a key diplomatic haven and center.
In the few pages above, you’ve gained more knowledge of Nigerian history than 90% of high school graduates in Nigeria. This is because for most of Nigeria’s post-colonial existence, the teaching of Nigerian history has been banned or excluded from schools.
How can this knowledge of the formation and history of the Nigerian state help resolve the current killings and security challenges facing the country?
Nigeria emerged primarily as a collaboration between two foreign colonial entities/parties.
The English won it as their plunder during the malevolent gathering referred to as Berlin Conference. They however had to pacify the resident colonials of Hausa Country, the Fudayyan Fulbes, a group of extremist (as far as imposing the requirements of religion on others is concerned), multi-generation Jihad launching clans had been in control of the traditional and religious institutions in Hausa country for about a hundred years.
Fulbe (Futa, Puel or Fula) clans had launched jihads in their own home countries of Futa Toro, and Futa Jallon about the time some of the clan members were originally invited to the courts of the Hausa Chiefs (Sarkins) as religious scholars and teachers. Led by Usman Fuduye (Fodio), Fulbe clans launched a jihad, starting from Gobir, that overthrew the bickering Sarkins all over Hausa country and took full control of the traditional and religious institutions.
(Fulbe clans had some practice launching Jihads in their home country, but hit a jackpot in Northern Nigeria’s Hausa Country, about a thousand miles from home)
Control and management are, however, two different things. The previously prosperous economy of Hausa country almost came to a grinding halt under the control of the Fuduyan Fulbes.
To counter this, the Jihadists made aggressive slave raiding and trading as the mainstay of their economy. Muhammad Bello, Fuduye’s son and successor was particularly brutal and may have killed millions as during his campaigns in what is now Nigeria. The middle belt countries that currently make up Nigeria’s central zones were particularly hit hard by these campaigns.
At some stage, the Fuduyan Fulbes reportedly had over 2 million slaves in captivity, one of the highest rates in the world at the time.
The English colonials and their conquistador-styled pointsman in Nigeria, Frederick Lugard, used the slave raiding economy of the Fuduyan Fulbes as the basis and reason for their military actions and campaigns in northern Nigeria.
By design or coincidence, this timing matched a guiding prophecy that the Fuduyan Fulbes held on to, that their hold over Hausa Country would last 100 years, so they fled when Lugard and the English showed up.
Mai Wurno, the son and successor of the clan leader at the time, fled 2000 miles all the way to the banks of the White Nile in Sudan based on the prophetic instruction of his progenitor, Fuduye.
Lugard and his Fuduyan-Fulbe Collaborators
Shamelessly, but hardly surprising, the English colonials found administrative convenience in the existing chokehold and control of Hausa countryJihadist Fuduyans and leveraged on it to gain control over Hausa country and the rest of what is now Nigeria. All talk of needing to overthrow the slave raiding foreign Jihadists to justify colonialism ended.
As such, Nigeria was essentially created by a collaboration of two very different foreign colonial entities.
Nigeria, especially in the far North, continues to pay a very bitter price for the rulership of the Fulbe clans in Hausa country with horrendous numbers in just about every development index including:
The tens of millions of out-of-school children; the tens of millions of people in extreme poverty; the high maternal and childhood mortality rates, and the security challenges are linked to the Fuduyan Fulbe control of the traditional and religious institutions of Hausa country.
There have been scores of religious uprisings with the leaders of each one claiming to want to introduce a more extreme form of religion or a return to the pure puritan Jihadists’ objectives that essentially destroyed the Hausa Country’s economy. A heavy toll of lives and property often accompany each uprising.
Prior to this, the indigenous peoples of Nigeria never attacked or fought each other on the basis of who worshipped what, and people within the same family and communities followed different religious practices and beliefs without acrimony or violence.
The extremism of the Fuduyan Fulbes reached such an extent that anybody, under their sphere of influence in Hausa Country that did not align or subscribe to their religious beliefs, was essentially stripped of their Hausa identity and citizenry and tagged with the term ‘Maguzawa’.
The allied herdsmen who serve as unofficial militia of the Fuduyan Fulbe clans have almost always been the advance party performing reconnaissance on sleepy and helpless villages before attacks and cleansing activities are undertaken.
The expansionist violent propagation that beset Nigeria even before its formation has been led by foreigners starting from Uthmman Fuduye and Lamido Adama, and with the only major exception being the Kanuri-led Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria’s north-eastern tip.
Solving 95% of Nigeria’s security challenges does not necessarily require military action, either from Nigeria’s military, or the American military as suggested by President Trump. All that needs to happen is for the leadership and control of the religious and traditional institutions in Hausa Country to return to indigenous Hausas.
With this, most of the security challenges will be gone almost instantly, and most of the human development challenges will be gone within a couple of years. This will include:
The out-of-school crisis which is linked to the destruction of the family with millions of young boys crammed into religious centres as ‘Al-Majiri’ instead of being in school and at home with their parents.
Low levels of girl-child school attendance and education.
High maternal and child mortality rates due to the factors listed above and an aversion for basic and common-sensical medical care, supposedly for religious reasons, even if this aversion hardly applies to the leadership class and enforcers of these supposedly important religious codes.
The activities of the Fulbe herdsmen who assert their right to drive cattle over land in all parts of Nigeria due to their participation in the Fuduyan takeover of Hausa country, according to them. There is absolutely no basis for group of foreigners to herd cattle, destroy farmlands and cause trouble all over the country.
Once this ends, other associated security incidents, including the cleansing of indigenous villages and a significant part of kidnappings all over the country that have been definitely shown to be perpetrated by these foreign extremists will significantly reduce.
Undertaking military action to address symptoms, no matter how significant they are, may be expensive and could result in significant collateral damage, especially with innocent civilians, and a military that is not responsible for the structural weaknesses and failures of the Nigerian state, but is blamed for security challenges that are symptoms of those structural weaknesses.
The foreign Fulbe leadership of Hausa countries’ traditional and religious institutions must end immediately.
Military campaigns, enlightenment efforts, conferences, funding of foreign and local aid, development work, and other efforts to address the security, social, and human capital challenges in Nigeria’s North, especially Hausa country, while the Fulbes remain at the helm of Hausalands’ traditional and religious institutions, amounts to a useless waste of time, effort, and money on the symptoms rather than addressing the source and causes of the problems directly.
Once the Fuduyan Fulbe Clans are no longer at the helm of affairs of Hausa country, Nigeria can then be structured into a Confederation of 7 to 10 States.
The Future of Nigeria
Confederation of Nigerian States
The Confederation of Nigerian States is an Economic Union with countries that are fiscally separate, and have their own internal jurisprudence and governance arrangements. Policing and security will be largely local, but under agreed terms, a joint military should be maintained for a decade as countries build up their National Guards.
A minimum of 7 countries will emerge, but Nine (9) countries are listed below, given the history and geo-political development of the countries and peoples within the Nigerian State. Referendums in the Midwest and Cross-Ibom States may lead to voluntary consolidations. However the number of countries could range between Seven (7) and ten (10). The 9 Countries in this scenario are:
Southern Hausa
Kanem
East Central Nigeria
West Central Nigeria
SouthEast Nigeria
Southwest Nigeria
MidWest Nigeria
Niger-Delta Republic
Cross-Ibom State
The Confederation of Nigerian States
Key governance arrangements and features of the Confederation of Nigerian States
An economic union with free (no tax) movement of goods and people.
Residency allowance and home country status for CNS citizens within all CNS countries, similar to UK and Ireland’s Common Travel Area (CTA)
Separate budgeting, governance and policing arrangements for each Confederate State
Continued unified economic systems in many areas (corresponding company registration, admittance in courts, admission in institutions etc)
Agreements to be reviewed every decade
Single Military for 10 years. Citizens allowed to serve in each other’s military based on needs
Countries allowed to set up their military academies, similar to the various campuses of the law school which operated in all ‘geo-political zones of Nigeria.
Policing to be a local (community) arrangement, but National Guards (military) to emerge based on confederacy terms and agreement
Separate foreign policy (different countries with very different outlooks)
Separate sports leagues and representation in International Competition
Joint administrative zones and districts (Ports, FCT, Lokoja)
Each country to develop its own Governance arrangement
No central/national legislative assembly
Some countries will lean towards prominent roles for traditional rulers, others will be more republican, and some may lean more towards cultural or (local and foreign) religious administrative arrangements.
The governance arrangements (unitary, federal, republican, confederation) will also differ within each country, and the headship of the government (Prime Ministership/Presidential) would also differ, as will the legislative (elected/traditional/unicameral etc) and judicial arrangements
Funding, Taxation, Budgeting, sustainability, accountability
Low/Universal tax rate that emphasizes activity and assets over income recommended.
Scraping of the fraudulent and destructive VAT. Very low sales and import taxes will help boost economic activity and expand coverage and revenues recommended, as long as the integrity of the system is maintained.
Recognition of new economy and notional income.
Trust and endowment management model for oil and resource rich areas. National operating companies have bastions of fraud and are not needed. Local and foreign operators should pay tax to the country and contributions to the endowment funds and operate in an environmentally responsible and sustainable way. Countries can make contributions and remittances to the Confederacy Administration based on agreed terms.
Youth mobilization and education to fix infrastructure and institutional gaps (self sustaining and reformed NYSC and Military)
US had draft when needed for instance
CNS countries will collect revenues and minimally fund activities and commitments of the legacy or predecessor Nigerian State.
Southern Hausa (Kano)
Covers the Southern part of Hausa Country, which is in the Nigerian State.
The artificial border across Hausa Country is practically and functionally inexistent and null and void. Niger Republic is the Northern part of Hausa Country.
Kanem (Maiduguri)
Hausa Country’s eastern neighbor historically occupied both sides of Lake Chad, with with its territory stretching northwards from the northeastern tip of Nigeria and straddling both sides of the Niger-Chad border towards the southern tip of Libya
East Central Nigeria (Jos or Wukari)
This will be the Eastern part of Nigeria’s middle belt. 10% of the world’s estimated 7,000 languages are spoken on both sides of the border with Cameroon, but the people live at peace, on their own lands. The unique nature of this extremely beautiful region (with many languages spoken by less than 50,000 people) has been deceitfully used to prop up a false complexity of the Nigerian State.
Long standing disturbances and terrorism mostly stem from external parties stemming from Modibo Adama’s charge from Fuduye to conquer the southlands, and will need to be quelled.
Wukari is proposed as capital to help spread development.
West Central Nigeria (Bida)
The Nupe and the affiliated Igbira are major ethnic groups in the West Central, alongside the Zuru, Kambari and Bariba (Borgu) whose territory is mostly in Benin Republic as a fallout of the criminal Berlin Conference.
Bida is proposed as the capital of this Confederate Nation.
SouthEast Nigeria (Enugu)
The Ndigbo effort to form an independent nation led to the needless and avoidable Biafra war in 1967. The Confederate nation of SouthEast Nigeria will ensure those efforts are not in vain, and also end continuous agitation over the impracticability and unsustainability of the Nigerian State.
Southwest Nigeria (Ejigbo)
About 15% of Afenifere Confederacy are in the post-Berlin Dohomey/Benin Republic including the cities of Sabe, Ketu (Ketou), Popo and Ajase . The centrally located Ejigbo is proposed as the capital of this Confederate Nation to spread development.
Mid-West Nigeria (Irrua)
Mid-West Nigeria is made up of the Edo, Ishan, Etsako, Igala and Itsekiri ethnic groups. This might be the smallest Confederate nation within the CNS, but with over 10 million people, the population and land area will be much larger than several European nations. Strong historical and cultural affiliation may cause individual ethnic nationalities in this nation to seek union with the neighbouring Confederate nations of Niger-Delta, South West or West Central.
Niger-Delta Republic (Yenagoa)
Oil rich Niger-Delta republic will be largely made up of Ijaw and Urhobo ethnic nationalities, and will cover the Ijaw heartland state of Bayelsa, and parts of Rivers and Delta States in Nigeria as at 2025.
Cross-Ibom State (Ikom)
Centrally located Ikom is proposed as the capital of the Cross-Ibom Confederate nation, which has the opportunity to use its oil resources to develop the tourism potential of the stunningly beautiful topography in its northern mountainous regions. The Ambazonia agitations across the Cameroon border on the East will be a factor to watch in the development of this nation.
Because they are involved:
The Nations bordering Nigeria have significantly interwoven, and in some cases, exactly the same as some parts of the Nigerian State.
Niger Republic (Northern Hausa) – About 70% of Niger Republic is Hausa, with the Djema and Kanuri making up most of the remaining 30%.
Benin Republic – Previously known as Dahomey, and now named after the Capital City of Edo State in Nigeria, Benin is home to most of the Bariba (Borgu) nation, and about 15% of the Kaaro-Jire Confederacy, making the Berlin created Western border of the Southwest Nigerian and West Central Nigeria a somewhat artificial barrier between contiguous and naturally existing nations and peoples.
Ambazonia – The ‘Anglophone’ regions of Cameroon have been shortchanged and hard done by various international bodies and proclamations, which placed colonial considerations over the interest and desire of the local populace. The Confederate nation of Cross-Ibom will be closely watching.
Tchad – Tchad’s interest in the Confederate Nigerian States is limited to Kanem. Tchad has a strong North-South dichotomy with the Kanem having significant presence in the Northern part of Tchad, and occupying both the Tchadian and Nigerian sides of Lake Tchad.
The Nigerian Military
Formed by outsiders for their own purpose, and used to form the Nigerian State as the West African Frontier Force.
May and probably should outlive the Federal Nigerian State for the orderly loosening and transitioning of the Nigerian Federation to the Confederation of Nigerian States.
The best and most significant protection it can give to the people of Nigeria may to ensure the orderly dismantling of the Nigerian State.
The Nigerian military must find and redefine its purpose, which must be linked to the peace, stability, progress, development and protection of the peoples and countries of the Confederation of Nigerian States, especially during the transition period and the first decade of the existence of the Confederation.
Fears of another civil war or a splintered military, while rational, are largely unfounded. The scenario is very different from 1967 for instance.
Many military officers have known each other from age 10 (Military Schools) or age 16 (Defence Academy). There will be little motivation to take up arms against each other for an extremist and feudal hegemony or corrupt political interests.
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