Screencap of Twitter/X video.
The 2028 election may be a long way off, but at the moment it looks as if the GOP nomination is JD Vance’s for the taking.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten recently crunched the numbers and found that no other candidate even comes close to him. Even Marco Rubio, who has been a pleasant surprise for many conservatives during Trump’s second term does not come close to the level of support for Vance.
Vance overwhelmingly won a straw poll at a Turning Point USA event and it looks like that was not an outlier.
Enten points out that this level of support is historic, even.
Mediaite has details:
CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, marveled on air Monday at Vice President JD Vance’s lead in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary for 2028, saying he couldn’t find any poll showing a similar lead in the past.
Enten began by telling anchor Sara Sidner, “I will just note it is never, never too early to talk about this because these guys are running already, even if they haven’t formally declared.”
“They’re already running, and JD Vance is running well ahead of the field. I mean, take a look here. Top chances to be the 2028 GOP press nominee, the prediction market odds. Look at this: JD Vance, 48% chance. Nobody else is even close. Marco Rubio is way back at 12%, and no one else is even above a 5% chance of being the 2028 GOP nominee. JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field, they’re like going around in go-karts at this point. I mean, that’s really what we’re looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time,” Enten added…
“Yeah, okay, so I saw this 51%, and all of a sudden, there was a buzz going around in my head. I said, “Boy, this seems really weird. I can’t recall anyone being this far ahead at this early stage in New Hampshire.” I looked back—hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president—JD Vance is the only one, the only one ever”
Watch the video below:
JD Vance is like Mario Andretti & the rest of the GOP is going around in go karts when it comes to 2028.
Vance is the clear favorite to win the 2028 GOP nom. He’s the 1st ever non-sitting pres to get 50%+ in early New Hamp primary polls. Has a 40+ pt lead over the competition. pic.twitter.com/UJclcrJep0
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) December 29, 2025
A lot could change between now and 2028 but at the moment, it’s looking like Vance is in a position to sweep the GOP primary if he chooses to run.
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