A new statewide poll released on Thursday shows Republicans firmly in command of California’s 2026 gubernatorial race after former Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign amid rape allegations and resigned from Congress.
The Emerson College Polling survey, conducted April 14-15, finds two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, occupying the top two spots in the jungle primary.
Under California’s system, the two highest vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of party.
Full results (all likely voters):
Steve Hilton (R): 17%
Chad Bianco (R): 14%
Tom Steyer (D): 14%
Xavier Becerra (D): 10%
Katie Porter (D): 10% (tied with Becerra in some breakdowns)
Matt Mahan (D, San Jose Mayor): 5%
Undecided: 23%
President Donald Trump has endorsed Hilton.
“I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. “He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before! Steve Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. He will be a GREAT Governor and, importantly, WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!
Many in the GOP have noted that Trump’s endorsement could consolidate the Republican vote for Hilton, making it more difficult to lock Democrats out of the general election. This is a rare case when a split vote is actually good for defeating the left.
Among Democrats only, the vote is now split three ways: Tom Steyer at 20%, Xavier Becerra at 19%, and Katie Porter at 15%.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted the direct impact of Swalwell’s exit, “In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot.”
The poll marks a sharp reversal from earlier surveys.
A SurveyUSA poll released just days earlier (while Swalwell was still in the race) had Steyer leading with 21% and Hilton at 18%.
In the Emerson poll from March, Republicans had held steady leads, but Democratic support was more consolidated behind Swalwell.
California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election in 2006 and has not had a GOP statewide officeholder since 2011.
The state’s deep-blue status makes the current fragmentation of the Democratic field historically significant. With 61 candidates on the primary ballot, the Democratic vote is splintered across multiple well-known figures.
Swalwell had been one of the top-polling Democrats before the allegations surfaced. He suspended his gubernatorial campaign on Sunday and announced his resignation from Congress the following day.
Multiple women accused him of sexual assault and misconduct dating back years, and a former staffer accused him of raping her twice.
Martin Shkreli and Jack Posobiec also released videos of Swalwell kissing a porn star in a bed while other men were present in the room.
Swalwell has denied the allegations.
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