Image: Video screenshot via @ForecasterEnten/X
CNN’s Senior Data Reporter, Harry Enten, revealed new polling numbers that show that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are maintaining the increased support among black voters seen in the 2024 election.
Harry Enten: Yeah, I think what we’re seeing right now in the numbers is President Trump and the Republican Party are chipping away at the long-term advantage that Democrats have had with Black voters, with African Americans. You can see it right here.
Look, Trump’s approval among African Americans at this point in term one, he was at 12%. You know, he’s been losing ground with a lot of groups. He’s gaining, he’s gaining ground with African Americans. He’s up to 16% at this point.
And you say this isn’t that big of a shift. But I will tell you, Republicans absolutely love this shift that’s going on because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage.
The fact that he’s actually gaining ground versus where he was in term number one, this has major implications for elections down the line because Democrats, especially in a lot of these tight races— you talk about places like Georgia, right down in the South— you see this type of movement for Trump actually gaining ground, this could have major ramifications and could help put Republicans over the top in a number of southern places in the midterm elections.
Kate Bolduan: But do you see this as part of a bigger trend?
Harry Enten: I see this as absolutely part of a bigger trend. Donald Trump’s Republican Party is absolutely gaining ground, not just him gaining in terms of his approval rating, but look at the party ID margin, Kate, because this to me was absolutely stunning.
Look at this…. party ID margin among African Americans at this point in Trump term number one. Democrats had a 63-point advantage. That is absolutely fallen. Look at where it is now, a double-digit shift away.
Democrats, of course, still have the advantage, but it’s a 12-point shift to the Republican Party.
And I look back through Gallup’s records, they sent me their records, and this in fact lead that Democrats have is actually smaller than any lead from 2006 to 2021. So Democrats are leading, but again, we’re talking about chipping away.Republicans are chipping away at this long-term advantage that Democrats have had among African Americans.
We see it in terms of Trump’s approval rating, and we even see it to a wider degree among the party ID margin, where all of a sudden there are a number of African Americans who are walking away from the Democratic Party and a number of them who are walking into the Republican tent.
Kate Bolduan: That is very interesting. Looking at that past Gallup information.
Harry Enten: Yeah.
Kate Bolduan: What does this mean for the race for control of Congress?
Harry Enten: Okay, so you see this right here, you see this 51-point advantage that Democrats have, significantly less than you see that 63-point advantage. And what we will note was back in 2024, right, Donald Trump put in a historically strong performance among African Americans.
Democrats performed the worst in a generation.
Have they gained any of that coalition back from where they fell down to in 2024? But take a look here. Okay, choice for election among African Americans. Kamala Harris was leading amongst that group in the pre-election polling by 63 points.
Are Democrats gaining back any of that ground?
Uh-uh. It’s a 62-point advantage now. Republicans are holding on to the gains that they made among African Americans in 2024. Republicans are gaining among African Americans. They are chipping away at that long-term advantage.
The Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African Americans that we simply put have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation.
Watch:
Trump’s GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election.
The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point.
Trump’s approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1. pic.twitter.com/EKiEv561jk
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 30, 2026
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