House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries Speaker Mike Johnson
A new national survey suggests the battle for Congress remains wide open, with Republicans and Democrats deadlocked heading into the 2026 midterms.
The Harvard CAPS/HarrisX poll, conducted April 23 to 26 among 2,745 registered voters, found 50 percent support for each party on the generic congressional ballot.
The survey carries a margin of error of 1.87 percent.
Voter engagement shows a slight Republican edge.
Among GOP respondents, 62 percent said they will definitely vote, compared to 59 percent of Democrats.
Another 18 percent of Republicans said they would probably vote, versus 17 percent of Democrats.
2026 Generic Congressional Ballot
Registered voters
Republicans: 50% [+1]
Democrats: 50% [-1]
—
LIKELY Voters
Republicans: 50% [+2]
Democrats: 50% [-2]
Harvard/Harris | 4/23-26 pic.twitter.com/J5PR3CMWQi
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 28, 2026
Independent voters lean slightly Democratic, breaking 52 percent to 48 percent, though overall turnout among independents trails both major parties.
On presidential performance, voters are evenly divided. Half say President Donald Trump is doing better than Joe Biden, while half say worse.
Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 42 percent approve, and 53 percent disapprove, improving to 46 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove among likely midterm voters.
Economic concerns remain the priority of most Americans. Inflation and affordability rank as the top issues for 35 percent of voters, followed by the economy and jobs at 28 percent.
Immigration registers at 24 percent, health care at 22 percent, the U.S.-Iran conflict at 20 percent, and corruption at 18 percent.
The results cast doubt on the idea that Democrats are cruising towards a so-called “blue wave” in November.
However, the latest RealClearPolling average has Democrats up 5.4 percent on the Congressional ballot.
Some polls, such as Quinnipac, show Democrats up by as much as 11 percent, while Rasmussen and Morning Consult have them up by just three percent.
The Harvard poll also found Kamala Harris as the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2028, trailed by Gavin Newsom at 22 percent and Josh Shapiro at 9 percent.
Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance remains way out in front on the Republican side, with 48 percent support.
2028 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
Harris: 50% (+9)
Newsom: 22% (-4)
Shapiro: 9% (-1)
AOC: 8% (=)
Pritzker: 6%
Other: 6%
——
Vance: 48% (+6)
Trump Jr: 18% (-2)
Rubio: 16%
DeSantis: 9%
Carlson: 4%
Other: 5%
Harvard/Harris | 4/23-26 | RV pic.twitter.com/zDC4DO4kdJ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 28, 2026
He is trailed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio by 16 percent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 9 percent.
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